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Being initially designed as a day trading firm, Mcribel.com had successfully used Time and Sales sheets as primary tool to identify daily trends, and to assist our clients with their stock trading activities. After two years we had developed our own system covering intraday and short term trading. During the course of a trading day we would make 5 to 10 fast transactions designed to capitalize on short-term price imbalance of targeted stocks. This system proved to be very profitable in the boom times of 1999-2001. When the speculative bubble had burst, market conditions got worse. It became very hard to find profitable targets, especially for intraday trading. We would spent most of the day analyzing market trends, sorting through thousands of stocks, looking at hundreds of indicators and getting very small profits. At this point we had decided to develop a universal method for short term trading. An algorithm that would allow us to filter through hundreds of stocks and find ones that fit our criteria. An algorithm that would assist a trader to achieve maximum efficiency and maximum profits. In order to develop this sort of model we had to start with a clean slate and look at the most important underlying factors, hidden mechanisms and major principles of stock trading. Things absolutely unknown to a regular Buy and Hold investor. As a result we had developed an enormous theoretical base, explaining the relationship between money flow and it's influence on the future price of a stock. From this point we have focused on practical applications, where we are capable of filtering thousands of stocks and picking ones more suitable for a short-term trader.
How successful is our strategy?
You can check our Trading History page.
To define the dominated direction we count the number of shares traded at ask and traded at bid. We use "Trading Flow" definition for this value. Although, it is the same as the "Money Flow" but more precisely reflects the process. Each single trade is accounted for. When each single trade is executed at the ask price or higher, Trading Flow value is increased by the number of shares traded, meaning someone puts in a buy order. When a trade is executed at the bid price or lower, Trading Flow is decreased by the number of shares traded, meaning someone puts in a sell order.
The practical application of trading flow research consists of two main directions:
1. Confirmation of upward/downward trends
2. Finding stocks at possible reversal point
1. Confirmation of upward/downward trends
Mainly, the unidirectional Trading Flow movement should accompany stock price movement. If the price goes up and Trading Flow value goes up it is considered to be a confirmed uptrend. If the price goes down and Trading Flow value goes down it is considered to be a confirmed downtrend. When a trader wants to buy or sell shares it is good practice to check the Trading Flow position along with other verified methods.
2. Finding stocks at possible reversal point
We use divergency between the direction of the stock price movement and the direction of the Trading Flow movement for finding stocks at possible reversal point. When price goes up and Trading Flow goes down we consider that sellers activity exceeds buyers and we are looking for possible decline in the following several days. This divergency is called "negative" to indicate the negative potential. When price goes down and Trading Flow goes up we consider that the buyers activity exceeds sellers and we are looking for possible recovery in the following several days. This divergency is called "positive" to indicate the positive potential. Again, when a trader wants to buy or sell shares it is good practice to check Trading Flow position along with other verified methods.


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In the next part we will talk about the one more important factor - Block Trades.
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Trading Flow
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Trades occurred at ASK price mean the buyers activity and are considered as positive. Trades occurred at BID price mean the sellers activity and are considered as negative. |
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Regular downtrend picture. |
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